A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
