Foreign Office Advised Against Military Action to Overthrow Robert Mugabe

Newly disclosed papers reveal that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military action to overthrow the former Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".

Government Documents Reveal Deliberations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Leader

Internal documents from Tony Blair's government show officials considered options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.

Following the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.

Isolation Strategy Considered Not Working

Officials agreed that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was failing, having not managed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Courses considered in the files were:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach supported by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Significant Losses and Jurisdictional Barriers

It cautioned that military intervention would result in heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we assess that no African state would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document adds: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, a senior official, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We should work out a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.