Netherlands Elections: Major Parties and Main Issues in Snap Vote
Citizens in the Holland are set to possibly exchange the most rightwing government in modern history with a more moderate and pragmatic alliance during early general elections scheduled for 29 October.
The Situation and Why It Matters
Snap general elections were called after the breakdown of the previous government in June, when far-right politician the Freedom party leader withdrew his party from an already unstable and largely ineffective governing alliance.
The PVV had achieved a surprising first place in the 2023 election, and after prolonged talks formed a unstable multi-party conservative alliance with the BBB party, centrist New Social Contract and liberal-conservative VVD.
Nevertheless, Wilders' coalition partners deemed him too toxic for the prime minister position, which was given to a ex-security head. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic commentator who has required security detail for two decades, resorted to sniping from outside government.
Wilders finally caused the government collapse on June 3 after his allies declined to adopt a far-reaching comprehensive anti-immigration plan that included using military forces to patrol borders, turning back all refugee applicants, closing most asylum centers and sending home all Syrian refugees.
While support for the PVV has declined, polls indicate the far-right, anti-Islam party is again likely to secure the largest representation in parliament. However, major Netherlands political formations have collectively rejected entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
No fewer than 16 parties are forecast to enter parliament, but none is expected to secure above about one-fifth of the vote. As usual, the future Netherlands administration, typically an influential player on the European and global scene, will be formed following alliance talks that could last months.
Electoral Mechanics and Party Environment
There are 150 representatives in the Dutch parliament, meaning a government needs 76 mandates to form a majority. No single party typically achieves this, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions for over 100 years.
Representatives are chosen quadrennially – sooner when governments collapse – through proportional representation, based on an certified roster of contenders in a single, nationwide constituency: any political group that wins 0.67% of the vote is assured of a seat.
Similar to much of Europe, Dutch politics have been marked in modern times by a significant drop in backing of the traditional governing groups from the moderate right and left, whose electoral support has decreased from over four-fifths in the eighties to barely two-fifths now.
Domestically, this process has been accompanied by a remarkable multiplication of minor political groups: 27 are running this time, including a party for the over-50s, a young people's party, a animal rights party, a party for universal basic income, and a party for sport.
Major Parties and Main Issues
Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, projected to lose up to eight of the 37 seats it secured last election. It advocates, among other measures, a total moratorium on refugee admissions, male Ukrainian refugees to be returned, the army to fight "street terrorists", and an end to "progressive education" in schools.
Two political groups, of the centre-right and centre-left, are closely competing after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Netherlands government from the late 1970s to the early 90s, and once more in the early 2000s, but dropped to only five mandates in the previous poll.
However, under Henri Bontenbal, its youthful rising star, who entered politics only four years ago, the party has recovered strongly with a campaign highlighting the severe Netherlands housing shortage and a promise of "reasonable, respectful governance". It is on course for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the green party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is anticipated to become a full-blown merger, is on track to secure comparable seats, according to survey data.
Led by the seasoned former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, it has made building more new homes its biggest priority, and has controversially included a net migration cap of between forty to sixty thousand people annually in its platform.
Three additional groups appear set to be significant forces in the new parliament.
The center-left D66 is on course to increase representation – capturing up to 17, from its present nine – under its straight-talking youthful head, with a platform centred on residential construction (it proposes to build 10 new cities) and an "individual basic benefit" for recipients.
The center-right VVD, the political group of the former prime minister (now NATO leader), is predicted to slump to no more than sixteen mandates from its current 24, with its leader, criticized of taking the party too far to the right, held responsible for its decline. It is proposing business tax cuts and reduced social benefits.
The anti-establishment, strictly rightwing JA21 is a breakaway group from another far-right party – the once popular, now scandal-hit Forum for Democracy – and seems to be benefiting from an departure of supporters from the three major rightwing parties. It could secure fourteen mandates.
Besides the two main rightwing parties, both other partners in the unsuccessful previous government, the BBB and NSC, are expected to lose out, with the NSC not even guaranteed legislative seats.
The top issues so far have been migration policy, with several – sometimes violent – demonstrations against proposed asylum facilities for refugee applicants, the living expenses, and the perennial Dutch problem of housing (the country is short of 400,000 homes).
Potential New Government
Given the deeply divided state of Netherlands political landscape, what coalitions are actually possible is just as important as who wins the election (or in this case, probably runner-up, since no major party will govern with Wilders, who maintains he intends to lead a minority government).
After the election, MPs first appoint an informateur, who explores potential partnerships. Once a workable alliance has been found, a formateur, usually the leader of the biggest prospective member, begins discussing the government program. This often requires months.
Multiple options look possible, most involving a mix of parties from moderate left and moderate right. The most likely, according to coalition experts, include Christian Democrats and GreenLeft/Labour, plus D66 and one or more minor groups possibly incorporating the conservative party.
