Will Scotland at last break the long-standing losing streak?
Autumn Nations Series: Scotland v New Zealand
Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, the Scottish capital Date: this weekend Time: 3:10 PM GMT
Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.
Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a international match.
A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."
Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.
A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest.
Recent History
Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.
In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.
Team News
Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.
Through their brilliance, their power, game management, they get the job done.
We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that some may have held for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.
Missing Players
Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.
Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.
In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.
Replacement Concerns
Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of limited game time.
And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.
Coaching Choices
Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.
The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.
Past Encounters
Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.
Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, set-piece issues.
By the Numbers
For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.
Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.
What Scotland Needs
During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.
The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - maintaining intensity.
In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.
Conclusion
Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? The game is lost.
With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.
Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.